The relations of the two countries have soured further following the President elect Donald Trump’s comments about raising tariffs on Mexico’s imports. Trump stated that any primary imports from Mexico and Canada would be placed under 25% tariffs until the illegal drug and the illegal immigrant trafficking would secede. Countering Trump’s earlier claims of Mexicans pouring into the US claiming refuge, Sheinbaum has said the caravans have stopped coming to the border and that migrants and illegal drugs are being controlled on Mexico’s side.
The Context of Tariff Threats
The tariffs proposed by Trump are connected with what he describes as the, ‘invasion’ of illegal immigrants and controlled drugs, more so, fentanyl, which he insists, are ‘flooding’ into the US. He states that both Mexico and Canada can fix these problems by themselves. “This Tariff will not be lifted until drugs, particularly Fentanyl, and any illegal immigration are stopped,” Trump called out on his social media, urging both countries to act now.
Mexico’s Response
President Sheinbaum has refuted Trump’s claims by indicating the positive results that Mexico has had with regard to migration. “Migrant caravans do not arrive at the border anymore,” she stated during a press communication. Such statements relate to the decline in illegal crossings caused by taming the migration flow from Mexico. It should be noted that illegal crossings of the border had quite dramatically dropped because the countries were made to deal with controlling the movement within their borders. Sheinbaum also took issue with Trump’s policy, saying that tariffs would not resolve the problems of drug trade and immigration. In place of this, she pushes for dialogue and cooperation between the countries. “Dialogue is the best path to achieve understanding, and peace and to bring prosperity to both our countries,” she said, warning that tariffs may commence a bad trade war that could be grueling for the economies of both countries.
Economic Implications
Trump’s strategy of sabre rattling with tariffs has quite a grave potential economic downside. Trade between the U.S. and Mexico is very important, as $ 855 billion dollars worth of goods were traded in 2022 alone. The introduction of tariffs at any time would create disruptions in supply chains and cause high pricing on various items for American citizens such as automobiles or agricultural produce.
Sheinbaum drew attention to the fact that if Mexico imposes retaliatory tariffs, in case Trump implements his strategy, a vicious cycle of escalating tensions responsible for destroying mutual economic relations will ensue.
Broader Concerns
Besides trade, Sheinbaum’s worry expressed was the health effects brought about by drug proliferation. She observed that although Mexico is making an effort to carry out measures against drug smuggling, the craving for substances such as fentanyl does not come from Mexico and helps the United States. “The transit of drugs is a public health and a consumption issue for your society,” she remarked, calling on the American counterparts to address the issues surrounding drug demand rather than pointing fingers at Mexico for being the drug supplier.
Further, she pointed out that if the US changes its approach and moves to assist regional development rather than establish military presence it could help deal with the issues compelling Central Americans to migrate. This recommendation embodies a gradual departure from the quick fix approach of addressing migration through policy measures such as tariffs to comprehensively focusing on the underlying causes of the problem.
Conclusion
Trump’s chances in winning the elections and starting his second term in office are reinforced by a more assertive stance toward issues including immigration or trade. On the other hand, President Sheinbaum’s call for dialogue and statements about the migratory caravans not reaching the borders any more demonstrate Mexico’s efforts to deal with these issues in a timely manner. Such fluidity arises from the fact that the bilateral relations exist in a such multilayered economic and social fabric in which there are rising tensions and potential changes in policy. Whether the desired collaboration will succeed will depend at least in part on how both sides communicate as well as how willing are they to address common challenges instead of resorting to measures that would further economically and socially ruin these two countries.