In recent times, the Syrian civil war has taken an upward turn with the rebels led by the HTS Islamist insurgents beefing up their offensive against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Dubbed the ‘Dawn of Freedom’, the campaign termed ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ has seen the capturing of vital areas, among them parts of Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria. Such massive fighting adding to the existing turmoil has led to Iraqi militas allied with Iran promising involvement in support of Assad’s regime, indicating further regional militarization.
The Insurgent Offensive
The offensive began with HTS and its allied factions forwarded along with the Turkish supported Syrian National Army conducting assaults along various fronts. There are reports that these insurgents had not only seized parts of Aleppo but also are making their way south to capture Hama. This is quite a dramatic change to the maps of control in Syria, which had been relatively unaltered for the past several years owing to the absence of the offensive by Assad’s army and the army of allies.
With the territory of the insurgents expanding, reports surfaced claiming that the remnants of pro-regime forces who had to retreat had left behind advanced military equipment, such as the Russian Pantsir air-defense system. This acquisition does not bode well in terms of stability in the region and the number of casualties has the potential of increasing as both sides are preparing for more confrontations.
Iranian Militias Mobilize
Following the recent terrorist offensives, Iranian-backed militias within the Axis of Resistance in Iraq pledged to assist Assad’s forces. The Nujaba Movement, one of the major factions, has stated its readiness to send troops to bolster the Syrian government. Their representative insisted on the necessity of collective actions against groups which they consider as insurgents working for the stability of the region’s United States and Israel.
The intervention of Iranian-backed militias is illustrative of the intricate nexus of relationships and animosities that define the war in Syria. Iran has in fact been a backer of Assad for ages and has been able to supply him with military backing and resources which have been vital in his regime’s defense against opposing forces.
Regional Implications
The recent escalation in Syria is taking place in the context of a greater increase of tensions in the Middle East but so escalates the conflict in question with many other actors in the region with different interests. With Iran in particular, this is of utmost relevance as the country is engaged in an ongoing war with Israel and has other long term goals in the region. The latest wave of violence takes place at the same time as the Israeli forces’ operations targeting Iranian forces in Syria, which is already a violent situation.
There is a strong concern about potential escalation of conflict in Syria and its impact in other parts of the region due to Iranian forces’ intention to get actively involved. The US responded very little on these shifts, but that’s probably because they would always intervene in the history of Syria. The Kurdish SDF operating in the North which has been a major land holder in northern Syria may also have a part as they relate with the Assads and the rebels.
Humanitarian Consequences
The recommencement of hostilities has already brought about considerable losses. Some reports further suggest the death of no few than three hundred people since the onset of the insurgent offensive, with many being alzo civilians caught in the feud. As violence spreads and physical confrontation increases around the cities of Aleppo and Idlib regions, humanitarian organizations sound the alarms about worsening situation of innocent civilians who have already lived through a lot of conflicts. The situation has been aggravated in particular for the people who had been displaced in the course of, or because of, earlier fighting who are now being forced to seek refuge again. Numerous civilians get encircled in zones with air strikes launched from Syrian and Russian troops, and due to this there are demands for international intervention and support for humanitarian assistance.
Conclusion
The deepening of the Syrian conflict marks an important milestone; not just for Syria itself, but for the larger Middle Eastern region as well. The situation is ripe for further escalation as Iranian-backed militias get involved and insurgents led by them round up an aggressive military campaign to support Assad. While regional countries pursue their various interests, the humanitarian cost continues to escalate. With both parties mobilizing resources for what is expected to be one of the more decisive clashes in years, the next couple of weeks appear decisive. The international community must not only be watchful, but also ready to act, in order to ensure that the protection of civilians and the stabilization of the region remain priorities during the ongoing crises.
